Is it possible to win a war in Afghanistan?

The obstacles to victory are: mountainous terrain, distance from the sea, dearth of identifiable military targets, landmines and Afghan fighters who have put paid in the past to many an invader. Plus, within a few weeks, deep snow.

However, the US aim is surely not to occupy Afghanistan, as did the Soviet Union with disastrous consequences. Rather, it will be to eradicate any traces of Osama bin Laden's network and prevent any possibility that such a network could rise again.

The first part of this may be achievable. Washington has had bin Laden in its sights for years and probably knows a lot about his hideouts. It can destroy them. Even if the camps have been vacated, his associates can be found. The US and Britain have highly trained special forces.

The second part will be more difficult. It means toppling the Taliban. This could be done militarily, but what then? It will need longer-term political efforts to give Afghanistan, for centuries the battleground of tribal warlords, the chance of a more settled future. Alexander Nicoll

Will there be an uprising in Pakistan?

Less than two years after seizing power, General Pervez Musharraf faces a public backlash against last week's decision to back the US. There is a wide range of opposing forces, including most of the country's Islamic parties.

However, Pakistan's Islamic groups find it difficult to agree on almost anything other than opposition to the US. The biggest threat to Gen Musharraf comes from within the military, which has strong ties to Afghanistan's Taliban regime, having helped it to power in the mid-1990s. If US troops are allowed on to Pakistani soil, military loyalty will be heavily tested. Edward Luce

Will war break out elsewhere?

Many conservatives outside the administration of George W. Bush, the US president, and some inside it, are pressing for the military campaign not to be limited to Osama bin Laden, the suspected mastermind of the September 11 attack. They want to see Saddam Hussein ousted from power in Iraq, action against the Lebanon-based Hizbollah and tough action against Palestinian terror groups.

However, the view in the administration that appears to have prevailed, at least for now, has been championed by Colin Powell, secretary of state. He has argued that the best way to create and maintain a big international coalition to fight terrorism is, at least at first, to keep the military campaign narrowly focused. Stephen Fidler

Will the global coalition hold together?

The first test will come when the US takes military action. Watch out for backsliding by Nato allies unwilling or unable to join a military campaign that may well cause civilian casualties. China and Russia - which have so far voiced support - will also have reservations about a US-led military campaign in central Asia, which amounts to their own backyard.

Elsewhere, Arab states that have expressed sympathy for the US will be worried about a war that could turn into the "west versus the rest". Their support will be dependent on the degree to which the US fine-tunes its policy in the Middle East, particularly the perceived pro-Israeli tilt. Lionel Barber

Will George W.Bush be up to the task?

Mr Bush's early responses to the crisis were not reassuring. Reassurance came mainly from the solidity of his high-powered national security team. But on Thursday night, repeating Franklin Delano Roosevelt's feat of appearing in a crisis before the massed ranks of the US government on Capitol Hill, he finally rose to the elevated expectations. For perhaps the first time in his presidency, he fitted comfortably into the leadership role. Doubts will persist about his leadership ability. But for now he has at least begun to meet the unprecedented challenge. Gerard Baker

Will there be a global refugee crisis?

Probably. Afghanistan already has an overwhelming refugee problem. With 2m who have fled to Pakistan, 1.5m in Iran and another 1m who have been forced from their homes inside the country, Afghanistan is second only to Palestine in the number of refugees it has produced.

What most concerns the refugee and aid agencies is the general hardening of international attitudes towards refugees and asylum seekers, especially to those from South Asia and the Middle East, in the wake of the terrorist attacks. Quentin Peel

How else might terrorists strike at the west?

Rapid advances in biotechnology have created new opportunities to develop weapons of mass destruction at a low cost compared with atomic bombs or missiles. Osama bin Laden's followers are believed to have practised using chemical weapons in Sudan.

In the early 1990s, Iraqi scientists conducted research into anthrax and smallpox. United Nations arms inspectors say Iraq could still have stocks of phosphorus trichloride, the basic ingredient for a number of chemical agents such as mustard gas, the blistering gas first used in the trenches of Ypres in Belgium in 1917. David Firn

Will there be a clash of civilisations?

The attack need not prevent Muslims and non-Muslims from co-existing in the west as indeed they always have. The carnage was inflicted by a tiny minority of killers waging a war that is not born out of a rejection of the western "way of life" but out of a murderous drive to retaliate against US government policies.

Religious leaders and scholars, in the west and elsewhere, have an important role to play in easing tensions. Western governments must remember that many Muslim communities in Europe and the US were built out of the desperate search for what the west can provide - economic prosperity and respect for human rights. Roula Khalaf

Will the ceasefire in the Middle East last?

Washington's plans for an international coalition against terrorism have put pressure on both Israel and the Palestinians. Yassir Arafat, the Palestinian leader, knows he faces international isolation, or worse, if he does not act to curb violence. Israel is trying to refrain from military action against the Palestinians that might inflame Arab opinion.

But powerful forces threaten a re-eruption. There has been an almost complete loss of trust since the outbreak a year ago of the intifada, or Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation. Desire for revenge will not disappear. Ariel Sharon, Israel's prime minister, is wary of Mr Arafat and reluctant to make concessions. Ralph Atkins

Will there be a recession?

The shock of September 11th is virtually certain to tip the world into outright recession. In the second quarter of 2001 the world economy stagnated. World output will probably fall in the third quarter and is likely to fall in the fourth quarter as well.

For the world economy as a whole, growth this year is likely to be not much over one per cent. If so, 2001 would be the worst year since 1982. This would also turn out to have been the most synchronised global slowdown since the mid-1970s.

In response, central banks have cut rates of interest quite sharply. But these cuts may not have much short-term impact when the animal spirits of investors and consumers are weak and the US private sector is already running exceptionally large financial deficits. The probability is of a recession now, followed by no more than a weak recovery in 2002. Martin Wolf

What can governments do to avoid it?

So far, action has mostly been confined to central banks, which have cut interest rates in the US, Europe and the UK. But govern-ments could try to stimulate demand by cutting taxes or increasing public spending.

The US has announced a $40bn emergency aid package and is considering another $40bn-$50bn. Taken together, these plans would halve next year's expected surplus. A debate is now under way about whether any new stimulus is better delivered through tax cuts, much of which may simply be saved by nervous consumers, or higher government spending.

Elsewhere, governments have mostly ruled out emergency fiscal stimuli. The UK says its plans will be considered within its usual budget framework. France unveiled a budget this week involving heavy social security levies to reduce the planned deficit in 2002 and says it is unlikely to revise it. Alan Beattie

Will oil prices rise?

All depends on the scope of US-led military action. Last week the oil price went up on fears that US retaliation could affect the whole oil-rich Middle East. This week it came down on the assumption that war, in the first instance, would be confined to Afghanistan, which has no oil, and therefore the problem for the oil market was recession and lack of demand.

If the US targets Arab oil-producing countries or if the latter suffer terrorist reprisals for siding with the US, the oil price could soar. This would inevitably send petrol prices up. The percentage price rise would be higher in the lightly taxed US, where the cost of crude is a relatively large portion of the retail petrol price, than in Europe. David Buchan

Should I fly?

The rational answer is to check government travel advice about your intended destination. The US State Department has travel warnings against Afghanistan, most of its neighbouring countries and many Middle Eastern countries, including Iraq, Israel, Algeria and Yemen. It is also worth considering security arrangements at airports.

Air travel remains the safest form of transport. You are 11 times more likely to die in a car than in an aircraft, says the Civil Aviation Authority. But last week's events are likely to result in emotions holding sway over logic. For many people the question is likely to be "do I feel like flying?" rather than "is it safe to fly?" Scheherazade Daneshkhu

Is this the end of disaster movies?

The popular film industry thinks and feels - or tries to - in rhythm with the world. At present it seems inconceivable that people picking themselves up from the emotional dust and wreckage of September 11, those who witnessed the horror first-hand or those who felt as if they had, though thousands of miles away, will want to seek out fictional screen equivalents.

Since disaster movies supply emotions that, in the old phrase, we don't get enough of at home, they tend to thrive after, not during, real-life historical cataclysms. But that "after" may be significant, implying a causation, even if a delayed-action one. Several years after the second world war and Hiroshima, Hollywood swung into its two-speed action cycle of embattled Roman epics and paranoid sci-fi B-movies.

There was a smaller but still significant time lag between the decisive years of the Vietnam war and the 1970s disaster movie era (Earthquake,The Towering Inferno), whose nation-at-bay alarmism was surely related to the bruises of military trauma. So the events of Black Tuesday, after a long pause for recuperation, may well feed into a new or renewed form of cathartic action parable. Nigel Andrews

Will I lose my job?

Those in the airline industry, insurance and investment banking are most at risk but employees in many other sectors could be affected by a broader downturn. Manufacturers and telecommunications companies have already been affected by a global slowdown, along with advertising, media and business services groups.

Strong growth in employment in other sectors, including transport and distribution, have so far offset the declines. But consumer confidence will have been shaken. If spending slows more sharply, it will remove a key prop to growth in developed economies and job losses will multiply. Christopher Adams

Should we worry about restrictions on civil liberties?

Yes. Every crisis provokes calls for tighter security that the authorities say is needed to help defeat the enemy. Once conceded, the incursions on freedom may be difficult or impossible to recover.

This is especially true of the fight against terrorism. Some who are intending to commit dreadful atrocities may have hitherto committed only minor crimes and cannot normally be arrested on suspicion. Stronger official powers covering identity cards, phone tapping, official surveillance of internet communications and databases and bank transactions may all be necessary.

But lawmakers must be careful. When safeguards are relaxed, more innocent people will become entangled in the net. The road from freedom to the police state is paved with expediency. Max Wilkinson

Who gained financially from the attack?

Many hedge funds, which were betting on further falls in the US equity market, made money when the attack occurred. The big winners among hedge funds are likely to be dedicated short sellers or funds with a strong bearish bias, such as James Chanos's Kynikos Associates and Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global Equities III.

There have been rumours, which are being investigated by financial regulators, that those involved in the attack went short of airline and other stocks beforehand. No evidence of this has yet emerged, but even hedge funds that profited inadvertently could find themselves in the spotlight. Robert Clow

What should I invest in?

There are some obvious corporate gainers from the attack. Raytheon, the missile-maker, has risen about 30 per cent since the eve of the attack. More than 80 per cent of its revenues are defence-related. Frenzied buying of gold was reported on the afternoon of the attack. This week it has held on to a price rise of more than 6 per cent, helping the likes of Placer Dome and Newmont Mining.

Other traditionally safe stocks - food, drink, tobacco, drugs, utilities and savings banks - have been relatively resilient. But they offer no substitute for the excitement that drove the "new economy" boom. Jane Fuller

What will happen to anti-globalisation protests?

For now, anti-globalisation activism is silenced. The mass demonstrations in Washington next weekend to coincide with the annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund were cancelled even before the meetings were called off. After the destruction of the icons of Wall Street, being anti-capitalist looks dangerously like being anti-American.

But critics of corporations and corporate-led globalisation will not go away. Their networks have many members and financial backing. The internet, which helped activists organise and inform millions, is at their disposal. And they believe that issues of global capitalism, inequality and participatory democracy are more important than a fortnight ago. James Harding

Does the west need to think again about global inequality?

It is not so much a matter of "thinking again" as keeping promises to narrow the gap between the haves and the have-nots and to give the have-nots some of the tools they need to catch up with the rest of the world: good health, decent shelter, literacy and numeracy.

Self-interest as much as compassion should be the motivation. Although there may be no direct link between deprivation and terrorism, poverty is a breeding ground for extremism, civil wars and ethnic tension.

Twelve years ago the world's governments pledged primary education for all by 2000. They failed to deliver. Today 125m children - one-third in Africa - are not at school. Every year more than 4m of Africa's children die of preventable diseases before they reach five.

A recent report for the UN secretary-general estimated that to meet the Millennium Development goals of halving world poverty, eliminating illiteracy and providing universal primary education by 2015 would cost an extra $50bn a year. Mr Bush's war chest for the battle to eliminate terrorism is $40bn. Michael Holman

Will America reconsider its role in the world?

The World Trade Center tragedy has prompted Washington to focus on its international priorities, to recognise that they cannot be achieved alone and to become increasingly impatient with countries that do not share its vision of its role.

Washington has been arguing that multilateral support is essential for success and has taken time to cultivate international leaders. But whether a multilateral cause becomes a unilateral campaign depends on whether US aims are perceived as self-serving.

There has long been a gap between how the US sees its place in the world and how the sole superpower is viewed by other nations. Washington should worry about that perception gap - the unintended consequences of a foreign policy decision are as real as the planned outcome. Robert Thomson

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