Among supporters of al-Qaeda in the Arab world, the story of the Afghanistan war is not as bleak as it might seem. The military might of the United States fails to impress, the Taliban have yet to be crushed, and the survival of al-Qaeda is assured.

"The game is not over," insists one sympathiser. "The Taliban could still come back on the scene. Al-Qaeda is stronger than it's ever been. Whatever it has lost, it has more than compensated by new sympathies."

People who believe in the myth of Osama bin Laden - seeing him as something of a heroic figure who dared to challenge the US - dismiss the US victory in Afghanistan as mere propaganda. They prefer to rely on information they receive from militant websites and telephone calls from al-Qaeda members who fled Afghanistan.

"Those who've escaped and are in Pakistan or Iran say al-Qaeda and the Taliban are in safe places and preparing a counter-offensive," says a Saudi dissident. "This tells supporters that the US is living a fake triumph and in any case, the US, by its actions since September 11, is proving that people have the right to hate it."

This may be no more than a fantasy entertained by defeated radicals. After all, Afghanistan's ability to be used as a safe haven for terrorists has been destroyed. The Taliban have been decimated. And Mr bin Laden, if alive, is on the run.

Globally, the al-Qaeda network has been disrupted, planned terrorist acts stopped and more than 1,000 operatives arrested in 60 countries, while the world - with the exception of Saddam Hussein's Iraq - mobilised to support the US.

Yet, by Washington's own admission, the war against al-Qaeda is far from over.

The limits of the anti-terror campaign have as much to do with the mechanical, preventative approach taken by the US as the nature of the enemy.

"It will always be difficult to control terrorists entirely but we want to keep them on the run, off balance, force them to change methods of operation," says a US official. "Al-Qaeda is not destroyed. It's still a very serious threat and it's already making efforts to regroup and re-organise."

The official adds: "There are individuals reaching out, trying to assess the situation. They're not going to surrender."

US officials believe that al-Qaeda continues to have a significant presence in Yemen and Somalia and cells remain alive at least in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Germany and the UK. It has retained its links in south-east Asia, with affiliated cells uncovered in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines, and possibly India.

But warnings are now becoming more widespread that a lasting fight against terrorism will have to take into account the ideology of the movement and the environment that has allowed it to thrive.

Al-Qaeda is more of a cultural phenomenon than an organisation. It brings together people with shared convictions. They believe that to destroy the primary source of oppression in the Middle East - the ruling regimes - militants must attack the American nerve centre that not only keeps the governments alive but also backs Israel, the region's "greatest evil".

Militants drift in and out of al-Qaeda, coming together for tactical reasons, to help plan attacks. Most, however, are part of an extremist fringe of the Salafi school of Islam, a puritan movement that has grown in the Middle East and South Asia in recent years. This minority is immune to deterrence, convinced that each blow is a source of strength.

"Al-Qaeda people are driven by religious fervour. Everything that happens they see as building their faith and confidence," says a western diplomat. "They believe they're destined to prevail. So they consider that this [defeat in Afghanistan] is a setback - but that's all it is."

People who follow bin Laden believe that success comes from God and that their duty is to pursue their fight, regardless of the consequences.

"Osama bin Laden truly believes that he is unimportant, that he's doing his best to bring about change," says a Salafi expert. "People like him don't have a sense of fear and even if only 10 of them remain, they think it's worth it to keep fighting. It's about following the righteous path."

Teaching orthodox Islam and a sense of exclusivity, the Salafi movement is by nature anti-establishment, with adherents committed to spreading the faith through the da'wa (the "call" to Islam) and refusing to take part in politics. But the vast majority of followers are content with obeying the state, believing that their orthodox ways will eventually prevail and be adopted by the government.

It is, however, entirely plausible, say a variety of experts, that moderate Salafis might now be stimulated into joining violent groups, amid a growing sense that the US campaign is aimed against their beliefs.

"The US campaign has been seen as demonising Salafiya. Their schools are criticised as breeding terrorists, and they're told their ideology is unaccceptable," says the Salafi expert. "This antagonises a whole community which is at the heart of the Muslim world and is viewed as very pious."

Added to that is the broader Arab and Muslim resentment towards US policies. While hardcore members of al-Qaeda are driven primarily by ideology, the second but no less important circle of recruits - people who might provide logistical support - is driven by hatred of US policies.

"The ability of terrorists to communicate is impeded, states are deterred from providing safe havens, and surveillance and intelligence will prevent terrorists from organising," says Rosemary Hollis, head of the Middle East department at London's Royal Institute for International Affairs. "But what I don't see is a drying up of recruits for some new version of al-Qaeda."

"It all depends on the unsolved problems of the Middle East - problems that are important to these guys - and on US perceptions of imperialism, which are getting worse," she said.

Since September 11, accusations of American arrogance and unfair policies towards Muslims have been aggravated by the treatment of al-Qaeda prisoners in Guantanomo Bay and, most recently, by President George W. Bush's declaration that there is an "axis of evil" that includes Iran, Iraq and North Korea.

Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Arabs are more dismayed than ever by US support for Israel in the conflict with the Palestinians - the most emotional issue for the region and one with even wider appeal than the specific issue of the US military presence in Saudi Arabia.

Encouraged by European and Arab allies, the US, in the first weeks after September 11, appeared to accept that the Arab-Israeli conflict should be addressed as part of the anti-terror effort. It recognised, above all, that anti-US sentiment in the Arab world made it difficult for western-friendly regimes to crack down on extremists and back its war on Afghanistan.

But this approach seemed to be overtaken by both the quick military victory in Afghanistan and a spate of Palestinian suicide attacks against Israel. It was further undermined by what looks like attempts by the Palestinians last month to smuggle weapons into the occupied territories.

Concerns about appeasing terrorists and an unwillingness to distinguish between al-Qaeda and Palestinian militant groups seeking an end to Israeli occupation, led Washington to exert unprecedented pressure on Palestinians and to become more supportive of Israel.

"It's too sensitive in Washington to even say that the Palestinian issue is a problem to be addressed - it's as if you're justifying terrorism and hurting the memory of the people who died on September 11," says a western diplomat.

In the Arab world, however, this is breeding greater resentment towards the US.

"The US wants to keep the Palestinian issue on the back burner, but the sense of hopelessness among Arabs will create a generation who will be destructive to the rest of the world," warns an Arab official.

A debate that is more acceptable in Washington is over the need to promote economic and political reforms in the mostly autocratic Arab world. Since September 11, US officials and commentators as well as the intellectual elite in the Middle East have argued that policies of Arab governments have contributed to the radicalisation of parts of the society.

Repression, economic deprivation, and alienation from the state have been key sources of frustration in a region where more than 50 per cent of the population is under 25 and unemployment rates are high.

The US is now encouraging allies to provide economic assistance to several Arab countries, including Jordan and Yemen. Social change is also being promoted, with an emphasis on education, especially in Saudi Arabia.

Governments, meanwhile, have asked their official clerical establishments to spread Islam's non-violent message.

Arab political activists, however, doubt the US will also exert pressure for political change as the existing regimes are still viewed in Washington as the best guarantee of stability and pro-western attitudes. The only organised opposition in most countries is made up of moderate Islamist parties less tolerant of US policies.

At least so far, Washington's treatment of Taliban and al-Qaeda prisoners and its plan to use military tribunals appear to have encouraged governments in the Middle East and beyond to crack down harder on dissent in the name of the fight against terrorism.

"There is in the US's anti-terror campaign a dichotomy between short-term political aims and long-term realities," says a western official and expert on al-Qaeda. "It could take a very long time for something like al-Qaeda to re-appear, but the strategy so far may only postpone a bigger battle."