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Cash launch may boost euro exchange rate
By Jennifer Hughes in London
Published: December 30 2001 18:13GMT | Last Updated: December 31 2001 14:48GMT
euro exchange trends

With euro coin starter kits selling at inflated prices to eager numismatists on ebay, the online auctioneer, signs are that the introduction of notes and coins could provide at least a temporary boost for the single currency's exchange rate.

Analysts have suggested the euro, down nearly a quarter against the dollar since its inception in 1999, will benefit from demand for the tangible currency.

"Put simply, nobody currently has euros," said Kamal Sharma, currencies strategist at Commerzbank. "There's also some talk of central banks re-weighting their foreign exchange holdings to include more euros."

Observers have also suggested a lingering uncertainty over the success of the introduction of notes and coins may have led eurozone citizens to change some legacy currencies into dollars, Swiss francs or sterling. These could now be switched into tangible euros, boosting the single currency's exchange rate.

In the short-term, traders will be concentrating on the European Central Bank's euro-introduction logistics and the public's confidence in its new cash, according to Aisling Freiheit, chief forex strategist for Morgan Stanley in New York. "From the trading perspective it will make little difference. It has existed in our minds for three years," she said.

Ray Attrill, director of research at economic consultancy 4Cast, said: "The inability to switch money into actual euros has been a bit of a millstone around the euro's neck in the last year and this drag effect should disappear."

Politically, the euro's exchange rate is likely to become a bigger issue, with both positive and negative implications.

"There is a market perception that the [eurozone] authorities will be more willing to put a floor under euro weakness which could boost the euro," suggested Michael Metcalfe, currencies strategist at State Street Bank.

But in the longer term, increased lobbying from different interest groups could cloud the exchange rate policy of the eurozone authorities.

"When it ceases to be virtual, the euro's exchange rate will become far more important as an indication of, and a tool for, the prosperity of the region," said Mr Sharma.

The introduction of notes and coins is expected to have little effect on the government bond market, as government paper in the eurozone is already denominated in euros.

But a rise in the euro's exchange rate from a successful launch could boost eurozone bond prices, the performance of which has lagged the US market this year, partly weighed down by the weakness of the euro.

In the longer term, analysts suggested a successful launch could help narrow yield spreads between different eurozone members' bonds.

"The reality of notes and coins means it is much less likely a eurozone member could, or would, pull out of the whole Emu project and we could see this reflected in a lowering of the risk associated with some eurozone countries' bonds," said Mr Attrill. Additional reporting by Jeff Pruzan in New York