North West Constituency Target Seats
No Constituency Con Lib Dem 1 Lancaster and Wyre - Read 2 Wirral West - Read 3 South Ribble - Read 4 Morecambe and Lunesdale - Read 5 Bury North - Read 6 Bolton West - Read 7 Wirral South - Read 8 Crosby - Read 9 Blackpool North and Fleetwood - Read 10 Chorley - Read 11 City of Chester - Read 12 Warrington South - Read 13 Rossendale and Darwen - Read 14 Oldham East and Saddleworth - Read 15 Blackpool South - Read 16 Pendle - Read 17 Hyndburn - Read 18 Bury South - Read 19 Southport - Read 20 Tatton - Read 21 Rochdale - Read		Party seats pre-Election 2001

The North West (including Lancashire, Cheshire, Merseyside and Greater Manchester) has traditionally played a key role in national general election fortunes, due to the large number of marginal constituencies within its bounds. For example when Harold Wilson ended 13 years of unbroken Conservative rule in 1964, almost a quarter of the 59 constituencies gained by Labour were in this region. In 1970, it was the Conservatives who gained 15 seats in the North West as Wilson was defeated. Interestingly the same pattern was not repeated in 1979; Labour's vote in the North West fell by just 2% in Thatcher's first triumph and only seven seats changed hands. But the Conservatives then won another raft of constituencies in 1983 (including Bury North and Bolton West) and it was these seats that Labour found so difficult to win back in the following two general elections. Indeed Labour made but a single breakthrough in 1987 (Manchester Withington) and their eight gains in 1992, including the East Lancashire trio of Hyndburn, Pendle and Rossendale, were simply not enough for the party to dislodge the Conservatives from power.

The 1997 election finally saw breakthroughs in established marginals such as Chester, Chorley and Blackpool South, but Labour went one stage further by mopping up another raft of constituencies which had hitherto been seen as Conservative by right. These included Morecambe and Wirral West, hardly bastions of the left, where government ministers Mark Lennox-Boyd and David Hunt tasted the bitter pill of defeat after long and distinguished parliamentary careers. In total the Conservatives were reduced to holding just seven seats of 70 in the region, even managing to lose rock solid Tatton to Independent Martin Bell.

It is difficult to see the Conservatives losing any more seats here at the next election, though Cheadle remains a possible Liberal Democrat target and Labour are only 1,200 votes behind in Eddisbury (see by-elections) and 2,500 adrift in Altrincham and Sale West. It is more likely that the Conservatives will make advances, but beyond Tatton (surely an immediate regain), Lancaster and Wyre and Wirral South, Labour must be confident in holding most of their 1997 gains. Indeed the next most likely Tory successes could be in East Lancashire, where a series of spectacular local election results appear to have returned both Hyndburn and Rossendale and Darwen to marginal status. As a long-shot, watch out for Wallasey, at the depressed northern end of the Wirral, where the Conservatives were over 20% ahead in the May 2000 local elections, despite Angela Eagle's 19,000 majority in 1997.

The region is not without interest for the Liberal Democrats; they will be keen to hold on to Southport, which has oscillated between themselves and the Conservatives in recent elections, and also to win back Rochdale. They may be disappointed in both constituencies, but results since 1997 suggest they have a better chance in Oldham East and Saddleworth, scene of some ferocious electoral battles in recent years. After a number of near misses, Hazel Grove was won by such a huge majority last time (almost 12,000), that the constituency appears to have temporarily lost its marginal status. Finally, the Lib Dems continue to make extraordinary inroads into Labour's vote at a local level in Liverpool, so much so that they would have notionally gained all five constituencies in the city in both 1999 and 2000. The Lib Dems have of course failed to turn such local strength into national success on many previous occasions, and Labour will hope that this pattern continues.

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