North East Constituency Target Seats
No Constituency Con Lab Lib Dem 1 Hexham - Read 2 Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland - Read 3 Stockton South - Read 4 Tynemouth - Read		Party seats pre-Election 2001

The North East (including Durham, Northumberland, Tyne and Wear, the former county of Cleveland and also Cumbria) has fewer marginals than any other region, and the four it does contain are all unlikely to change hands at the next general election. This situation is a result of Labour's traditional and increasing dominance in national elections. Only on one occasion since the war (1959) has Labour failed to win two-thirds of the parliamentary constituencies; even in their meltdown year of 1983 they won 26 out of 36. Since then, the party has mopped up the remaining urban Conservative outposts, starting with Newcastle Central (1987), followed by Darlington and Barrow (1992) and most recently Stockton South, Tynemouth and Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland (1997). All that remains in the blue corner are three large rural constituencies: Westmorland, Penrith and the Border, and Hexham, which was almost lost in the landslide of 1997. Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats cling on to their single seat in Berwick, or marginally gained in a by-election in 1973.

Media interest since the last general election has focused on the large number of cabinet ministers in the region; as well as Tony Blair, Alan Milburn, Peter Mandelson, Mo Mowlam, Nick Brown and Stephen Byers all have their political bases here. This is probably a result of the concentration of so many safe Labour seats; no fewer than 17, almost half the total number of constituencies in the region, had Labour majorities exceeding 20,000 in 1997. In terms of electoral competition, there is no reason why Labour's dominance should not continue. Even though the party lost control of Hartlepool council in May 2000 and the Liberal Democrats polled most local votes in Blaydon, these results are highly unlikely to be repeated when the national government is at stake. Outside of the featured marginals, only Carlisle provides a realistic chance of a shock result, as the Conservatives gained control of the council in 1999 and are campaigning hard, though as they failed to win the parliamentary seat even in 1983 their chances remain slim. Elsewhere, interest will focus on the likely drop in turnout, though this is highly unlikely to deprive Labour of any of their 'heartland' seats due to the sheer size of majorities that had been amassed by 1997.

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