Introduction

The 18 seats representing Northern Ireland at the Westminster parliament are contested along very different lines from those in Great Britain, and will reliably return a full slate of 'Other' MPs not affiliated to the mainland parties. The Conservatives had tried to organise in the province but have met little success; their strongest showing in the 1997 general election was 6.8% in Antrim East, and they achieved truly derisory votes in the 1998 Assembly elections.

If the next election were to produce a very close result, the affiliations of Northern Ireland MPs could have implications for the direction of the UK government. This happened in the 1974-79 and 1992-97 parliaments, when every vote mattered. Sinn Fein MPs do not take up their seats, and are therefore not part of Westminster arithmetic. Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) MPs are broadly sympathetic to the Labour Party's philosophy and would not sustain a minority Conservative government. There is a range of views on social and economic matters within the Unionist delegation, and a very pragmatic approach to agreements with other parties at Westminster. Unless a government is doing very badly it should be able to gain support from either the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) or the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in the division lobbies on key votes, but probably not both at the same time.

The politics of Northern Ireland have been transformed since the 1997 election. The 1998 Good Friday Agreement and the establishment of a devolved executive with David Trimble as First Minister and Sinn Fein participation in its work have been revolutionary changes. Their electoral implications are yet to be fully explored, although the Antrim South by-election should provide a clue. David Trimble's support for the Agreement gained the support of a majority of the Unionist community in the 1998 referendum, but there are still deep divisions between pro-Agreement Unionists and those, inside and outside the UUP, who are hostile to it. These divisions could lead to a splintering of Unionist votes in some areas.

The Northern Ireland Constituencies

The basic determinants of who wins a seat in Northern Ireland elections are the religious make-up of the population and which parties choose to contest the seat. In the 1980s the Unionist parties concluded an electoral pact, but this was breaking down in 1997 and is unlikely to be renewed. The SDLP and Sinn Fein compete strongly with each other for the nationalist vote, but if a pact were possible now that Sinn Fein are no longer beyond the pale this would have significant implications.

The basic groups of Northern Ireland seats are as follows:

Strongly Unionist

Antrim East (1) is a coastal seat north of Belfast, including suburbs in the Newtownabbey area plus Carrickfergus and the port of Larne. Anti-Agreement UUP MP Roy Beggs held the seat in 1997, although with only 38.8% of the vote because the Unionist vote was so splintered; the Alliance Party and the Conservatives accounted for over a quarter of the vote between them. The same basic pattern repeated at the 1998 Assembly election and the seat is unlikely to change hands.

For Antrim East 2001 Election result - click here.

Antrim North (2)is the fiefdom of Ian Paisley, leader of the DUP; it is a mainly rural seat around Ballymena. It is a safe DUP seat; Paisley won 46.5% in 1997 (a low total for him), and the DUP team were well ahead of the pack with 37.6% in 1998. The Catholic minority here tends to vote SDLP (16.9% in 1998).

For Antrim North 2001 Election result - click here.

Antrim South (3) is to the north west of Belfast, including some suburbs, Antrim town, Aldergrove airport and the north shore of Lough Neagh. Anti-Agreement UUP MP, the late Clifford Forsythe, had no DUP opponent in 1997 and won very easily. In 1998 the UUP won 30%, as did the anti-Agreement DUP and UKU candidates put together; the nationalist parties were on 25%, and there were also Loyalist and centre candidates. These elections, of course, were under PR so the by-election will be affected by who chooses to stand - but it is not a certain hold for the UUP's David Burnside.

For Antrim South 2001 Election result - click here.

Belfast East (4) is the most Protestant part of the city. DUP MP Peter Robinson has represented East since 1983 although it has substantial votes not only for the UUP but also for the Alliance Party and the Loyalist Progressive Unionist Party, reflecting the very mixed class composition of the seat. Robinson is likely to prevail against divided opposition.

For Belfast East 2001 Election result - click here.

Belfast South (6) is the most liberal, intellectual seat in the city; it contains Queens University and is less sharply divided into segregated residential areas. It is a UUP seat for Martin Smyth, who opposed the Agreement, but minority parties are also strong. A Northern Ireland Women's Coalition candidate was elected to the Assembly in 1998, and the SDLP rather than Sinn Fein polls well among Catholics here. It should continue to send Smyth to parliament, even if the DUP were to oppose him.

For Belfast South 2001 Election result - click here.

North Down (8) is a prosperous middle class Protestant seat east of Belfast. There is hardly any nationalist voting, but it has seen some odd twists and turns within unionism. The MP since 1995 has been Robert McCartney, a 'UK Unionist' who opposes the Agreement and favours integration of the province with Britain. The UUP ran him very close in 1997, with 31.1% to his 35.1%, and a further 20.7% for the Alliance, and 'won' the seat with 32.6% in 1998. It is a possible gain for pro-Agreement unionism at the general election.

For Down North 2001 Election result - click here.

Lagan Valley (12) was a strongly UUP seat in the 1997 and 1998 elections, with opposition split between the DUP, nationalist parties and the Alliance. The area lies south west of Belfast and south of the airport. Its MP is Jeffrey Donaldson, a UUP critic of Trimble's leadership.

For Lagan Valley 2001 Election result - click here.

Londonderry East (13) is a rural seat based around Coleraine and Limavady; it does not include the city. It is represented by anti-Agreement UUP MP William Ross, although he won with only 35.6% in 1997 thanks to a strong DUP challenge. There is also a Catholic minority: 30.8% voted SDLP or Sinn Fein in 1997 and 33.4% did so in 1998, so that this seat is gradually becoming more evenly divided. at this election, however, the most likely threat to the UUP comes from the DUP.

For Londonderry East 2001 Election result - click here.

Strangford (15) is south east of Belfast, around the shores of Strangford Lough, and is overwhelmingly Protestant. Its MP is John Taylor, Trimble's UUP deputy, who has been a key supporter at critical moments. He held the seat in 1997 with 44.3%, against 30.2% for the DUP, and in 1998 the gap was down to 1.5%. Taylor can probably hold on by calling upon tactical support from Alliance sympathisers but faces a serious DUP challenge.

For Strangford 2001 Election result - click here.

Strongly Nationalist

Belfast West (7) has long been a very deprived and troubled area; it contains the Falls Road and was a focal point of conflict between the British Army and the IRA. It is now an overwhelmingly Catholic constituency. Gerry Adams regained the seat for Sinn Fein in 1997 after the SDLP's Joe Hendron held it from 1992 to 1997. Sinn Fein won over 50% of the vote here in 1998, the only such majority for any party in any seat, and Adams will surely win again.

For Belfast West 2001 Election result - click here.

9 - South Down used to be Enoch Powell's seat but boundary changes and social trends have converted it into a nationalist seat where the SDLP are clearly in control, winning 52.9% in 1997 and 45.3% in 1998. Eddie McGrady, the MP since 1987, has a fairly safe seat even if Sinn Fein improve their strength. The constituency is in the far south east of the province and includes Kilkeel and Ballynahinch.

For Down South 2001 Election result - click here.

Foyle (11) is the non-sectarian name for the seat based on Derry (Londonderry to Protestants). It has a large Catholic majority and is a strong base for SDLP leader John Hume, although not without a Sinn Fein minority presence.

For Foyle 2001 Election result - click here.

Newry and Armagh (14) is the base of the SDLP Deputy First Minister Seamus Mallon. South Armagh in particular had a violent history in the troubles, and political opinion here is divided. There is a Protestant, unionist-voting element around Armagh city, and also considerable Sinn Fein support on the border. Mallon is the most likely winner but is not totally invulnerable - in 1998 the SDLP team won 35%, to 26% for Sinn Fein and 31.5% for the scattered unionist parties.

For Newry & Armagh 2001 Election result - click here.

Divided

Belfast North (5) is a patchwork of segregated neighbourhoods. It used to have a large Protestant majority but the Catholic proportion has grown steadily and in 1998 the various unionist parties polled 45.4% to 42.4% for the nationalists. In 1997 pro-Agreement UUP MP won easily as he faced no opposition from the DUP or the Loyalist parties, but the UUP lagged badly in the 1998 election. The SDLP and Sinn Fein votes are dead even; it is possible that Belfast North could change hands on a very low share of the vote.

For Belfast North 2001 Election result - click here.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone (10) is in the rural south west of the province and a long way in every respect from Belfast. It has been precariously balanced between unionist and nationalist for decades, but since 1983 UUP MP Ken Maginnis has won a series of victories against opposition now evenly divided between Sinn Fein and SDLP. In 1998 it was 46.9% unionist and 48.4% nationalist. If the DUP decide to stand against Maginnis for backing the Good Friday Agreement, more or less anyone could win.

For Fermanagh & South Tyrone 2001 Election result - click here.

Mid Ulster (17), a rural constituency, elected Martin McGuinness for Sinn Fein in 1997 after several minority wins by the DUP's William McCrea. Sinn Fein led in 1998, although the SDLP and the DUP also polled respectably. Now that McGuinness has established himself here, and become Education Minister in the executive, his record should increase his attraction for SDLP tactical voters and he is likely to win again.

For Ulster Mid 2001 Election result - click here.

Upper Bann (18) is the constituency of First Minister David Trimble. It lies south of Lough Neagh and the main towns are Portadown and Craigavon. Drumcree is the scene of an annual bust-up over Orange parades. Upper Bann is not overwhelmingly Protestant: SDLP and Sinn Fein combined won 36.3% in 1997 and 38.0% in 1998, but Trimble should be safe enough as long as he can retain the majority of unionist votes while the nationalists are divided.

For Upper Bann 2001 Election result - click here.

West Tyrone (16) is a precarious UUP seat, newly created in 1997. It is in the far west, around Omagh and Strabane. It has a nationalist majority approaching two to one, but William Thompson (anti-Agreement) won with just over a third of the vote. Sinn Fein, although a close third in 1997, won the most first preference votes in 1998 with 34.1%, but the divided Unionists totalled 33.2%. It could be close once again.

For Tyrone West 2001 Election result - click here.

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