Yorkshire Constituency Target Seats
No Constituency Con Lib Dem 1 Shipley - Read 2 Selby - Read 3 Leeds North West - Read 4 Bradford West - Read 5 Colne Valley - Read 6 Scarborough and Whitby - Read 7 Calder Valley - Read 8 Pudsey - Read 9 Batley and Spen - Read 10 Brigg and Goole - Read 11 Keighley - Read 12 Leeds North East - Read 13 Elmet - Read 14 Cleethorpes - Read 15 Dewsbury - Read 16 Halifax - Read 17 Harrogate and Knaresborough - Read 18 Sheffield Hallam - Read		Party seats pre-Election 2001

In the past Yorkshire (including Humberside) has been one of the more stable regions politically ñ few seats change hands (for example only three in 1966, four in 1979 and one in 1992) and both main parties have a large number of constituencies that they can usually rely upon. As everywhere else however, Labour did finally make a significant number of gains last time, notably in West Yorkshire where the Conservatives lost nine seats and as a result were completely wiped out. The Conservatives also lost three seats in normally solid North Yorkshire (Harrogate, Scarborough and Selby), with their county-wide vote here dropping by 13%. They also lost Sheffield Hallam, their only seat in South Yorkshire.

Yorkshireís marginals could well prove to be more fertile ground for the Conservative Party at the next general election. It has often been the case that the leader of a major party can attract additional support in their own region, as demonstrated by an impressive Labour performance in Wales in 1987 (the first election in which Neil Kinnock was leader); by a series of gains made by the Liberal Democrats in the South West under Paddy Ashdownís leadership; and even by a slightly higher than average swing to Labour in the North East in 1997, a region where the party already polled heavily. William Hague is a Yorkshireman who also has his constituency in the region, and it would be surprising if there was not some sort of electoral bonus for the Conservatives here when the election arrives.

Conservative prospects in Yorkshire are enhanced further by a cluster of seats in West Yorkshire based on the towns to the south and west of Leeds/Bradford, many of which Labour struggled to gain in the first place and some of which have turned heavily away from Labour since the 1997 election. This ëPennine beltí actually crosses into the North West region, with Labour also potentially in trouble in the East Lancashire constituencies of Rossendale and Hyndburn as well as Oldham East and Saddleworth, some of which was originally on the Yorkshire side of the border. Many of these seats contain former industrial areas, accounting for previous Labour strength, but now attract a significant number of affluent commuters as well as those coming to retire. Both of these groups have traditionally been reservoirs of Conservative support, and it would not be a great surprise if Labour were to lose a number of these constituencies at the general election.

Labour are arguably more likely to hang on to Leeds North East and Leeds North West, even though these seats were traditional Conservative strongholds. Demographic change in urban and suburban areas has long been working to Labourís advantage, and these seats contain few of the safe Labour areas where the party may struggle to bring out its voters next time. Over in Bradford, it is difficult to see Labour holding Shipley, and the result in Bradford West, now suddenly a marginal after its pro-Tory swing last time, is totally unpredictable. Meanwhile Labour may struggle to hold Scarborough and Whitby, with coastal constituencies showing signs of swinging as violently away from Labour next time as they did towards the party in 1997. In the former Humberside, the seats of Brigg and Goole and Cleethorpes will be true barometers of national feeling, the first in particular could go either way. The Liberal Democrats will look to hold on to their two gains of 1997, Harrogate and Sheffield Hallam, which are of a completely different character to the seats held by the Liberals in the region in 1983 (Colne Valley and Leeds West). They will hope to continue to benefit from Labour supporters voting tactically to keep the Tories out; a major factor in 1997 with the Labour vote actually falling in these two constituencies compared with their national vote rising by some 9%. Realistically the Lib Dems will not add to this return of two seats, and their vote may even be squeezed further in Leeds North West despite their lead in local elections. It should also be noted that in local elections they have pulled ahead in two other Sheffield seats: Heeley and Hillsborough, though it would be a major surprise if such patterns were repeated in a national contest.

It is difficult to see any other seats changing hands that are not profiled below. Labourís 1992 gain of York was held with a remarkable majority of over 20,000 in 1997, though their lead in Wakefield (held by Labour since 1945 but marginal in the past) was smaller. In the Euro elections, Labour were out-polled by the Conservatives in Wakefield, all three constituencies in Bradford and also their safe Don Valley seat, though no-one seriously believes this pattern will be repeated at a general election. Meanwhile the Conservatives are surely unlikely to lose any more seats, even though a swing of 16% cut their majority in Beverley and Holderness to just 1,211 last time. This is of course another coastal constituency (including Hornsea and Spurn Head) which saw a huge swing to Labour last time, and it seems likely that it will now see a significant Conservative recovery.

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