For most countries, the prospect of global warming is feared, not welcomed. But it is possible that the UK tourist industry could turn out to be a beneficiary of a warming trend. If so, it will have benefited from the misfortunes of others.

A change in climate will make Britain's attractions greater as Greece and Turkey are threatened with heat waves, forest fires, and Spain faces flash floods and the return of malaria.

Rising sea levels could also inflict severe damage on some resorts - the Maldives in the Indian Ocean is particularly vulnerable.

At the same time, the cost of foreign holidays for Britons going overseas could rise as governments take action to curb global warming. Air travel is the fastest growing source of greenhouse gas emissions, which may put pressure on governments to impose measures that could push up the cost of taking foreign holidays.

While popular destinations such as the Mediterranean suffer, Britons will be basking in unaccustomed heat. Higher temperatures, warmer air and sea could help restore the fortunes of beach holidays off the coasts of south and east England.

True, winters are likely to get wetter, but summers in the south will get drier, according to the government's UK Climate Impacts Programme. Temperature rises are likely to be more rapid in the south east, for example Kent, than the north west, for example the Lake District.

Of course, these projections are subject to considerable uncertainty. The latest estimates predict that, globally, temperatures are likely to rise by 1.4-5.8°C this century, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an international group of scientists.

But much depends on the speed and extent of the temperature rises. If the temperature rise is greater than a few degrees this century, it could wreak considerable damage. But if the temperature rise is modest, the UK may be able to adapt well to the changes.

Tourism could "benefit considerably" from warmer, more predictable weather, according to a recent study of climate change in the south east by a consortium of local authorities, non-governmental organisations and private companies.

"The south east could have more visitors, an increase in second or holiday home ownership and return migration as expatriates move to the south east as southern European summers become too hot," it said.

"With warmer weather a high proportion of UK residents may be encouraged to holiday at home," said a study by David Viner and Maureen Agnew of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, commissioned by WWF, the conservation group. "We may witness not only an expansion in the domestic market, but an expansion in the in-bound international market as the UK develops a more Mediterranean climate."

The potential advantages for the tourist industry of climate change are listed in a recent study by the Chartered Insurance Institute, called Climate Change and Insurance.

Hotter and drier summers The tourist seasons will be longer, possibly extending into winter; there will be more short breaks; more sporting activities, such as golf, tennis and fishing; more outdoor leisure activity such as camping and barbecues; and greater opportunities for activity holidays such as walking, climbing and conservation work.

Warmer sea and lake temperatures would create more opportunities for sailing, swimming and other recreational activities. Warmer winters would bring certain advantages such as reducing frost damage and cutting out the need for expensive under-surface heating of pitches.

On the downside, there could be droughts, subsidence, increased fire risks, extra demands on water supplies, heat waves and poor air quality in cities. Some sites would become congested by large crowds of tourists.

Warmer water might bring algae bloom and threaten the survival of certain types of cold water fish. Wetter winters would mean improved drainage of pitches, golf courses and athletic tracks.

What's more, the beaches themselves could come under threat. Climate scientists predict rising seas levels and accelerating erosion of beaches, salt marshes, mud flats and other natural features. Many narrow English beaches are backed by concrete sea walls that prevent any natural migration of the beach towards the land.

According to a government-sponsored study on the impacts of climate change published in 1996: "For a beach backed by a sea wall, as in many resort towns, the likelihood is that increased erosion would lead to loss of beach material just at the time when the demand for beach-based holidays may be growing."

The Scottish tourism industry may face particular problems in adapting to a change in the Scottish climate, which is likely to become warmer and wetter.

Golf and skiing are particularly sensitive to climate change. "Snow cover is far from a certainty, even in the current climatic conditions. If a warming trend continues, the Scottish skiing industry may suffer, or even disappear," says UEA's Climatic Research Unit.

The famous St Andrews and other coastal gold courses may be threatened by coastal erosion and flooding, coupled with the need to secure adequate water supplies to cope with dry summers. A survey of links courses conducted by the magazine Golf World concluded that 69 per cent of golf clubs believe their course is facing serious threat from erosion or flooding over the next 50 years.

Given the likely impact of climate change on the tourism industry, is the industry doing enough to lay plans to cope with the changing patterns of demand? Not in the view of the Charted Insurance Industry, although it says that golf is an honourable exception.

The lack of action is cause for concern, it says. There is little evidence to suggest that the leisure industry is "formulating a strategy or has turned its attention to the planning or close examination of the issues involved".

It calls for a national strategy, involving the government, to examine the consequences of climate change for accommodation, transport links, employment or planning. Its message to the tourist industry is that it should stop doubting the evidence of climate change and start planning for a warmer future.